Demographics & Trade Area Analysis
Population data, income levels, and beauty professional density in the trade area.
1. Trade Area Definitions
Methodology
Trade areas are defined using standard salon suite industry practice. Research indicates that 70-90% of salon suite tenants live or work within 15 minutes of their suite location. For suburban markets like South Riding, this translates to:
- Primary Trade Area: 5-mile radius (~5-10 minute drive)
- Secondary Trade Area: 10-mile radius (~10-15 minute drive)
Source: Franchise Junkies - Salon Suite Location Selection
Primary Trade Area (5-Mile Radius)
Geographic Coverage:
- South Riding (core)
- Stone Ridge
- Chantilly
- Brambleton
- Aldie (village core)
Population Estimates:
| Community | Population (2023) | Median HH Income | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Riding | 34,200 | $190,701 | Core market |
| Stone Ridge | 16,300 | $183,211 | Adjacent, high income |
| Chantilly | 23,744 | $143,786 | Established suburb |
| Brambleton | 24,000 | $250,001 | Highest income in area |
| Aldie (village core) | 235 | $115,455 | Small but affluent village |
Primary Trade Area Total: ~120,971 residents, $199,965 weighted median HH income
Expected to generate 55-70% of tenants
Secondary Trade Area (10-Mile Radius)
Geographic Coverage (extends primary to include):
- Centreville
- Ashburn
- Broadlands
- Lansdowne
Additional Population in Secondary Ring:
| Community | Population (2023) | Median HH Income | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centreville | 71,885 | $143,704 | Large, established suburb |
| Ashburn | 45,551 | $152,094 | Fast-growing tech corridor |
| Broadlands | 14,673 | $235,491 | Ultra-affluent planned community |
| Lansdowne | 12,603 | $180,379 | High-income Ashburn-adjacent |
Secondary Trade Area Total (including primary): ~300,000 - 350,000 residents
Secondary ring expected to generate 15-25% of tenants
Trade Area Summary
| Trade Area | Radius | Population | Tenant Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary | 5 miles | ~121,000 | 55-70% |
| Secondary | 10 miles | ~325,000 | 15-25% |
| Combined | 10 miles | ~325,000 | 70-95% |
Key Insight: The combined trade area captures a population of approximately 325,000 residents, anchored by an exceptionally high-income core (South Riding, Stone Ridge, Brambleton, Broadlands) with median household incomes 65-185% above state averages.
Sources:
- Census Reporter - South Riding, VA
- Data USA - South Riding, VA
- Virginia Demographics - South Riding
- Demographics by Radius - South Riding 5-mile
2. Demographic Comparison
Core Metrics Comparison Table
| Metric | South Riding | Loudoun County | Virginia | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 34,200 | 443,380 | 8,683,619 | Market size foundation |
| Population Density | 5,019/sq mi | ~960/sq mi | ~218/sq mi | Higher density = more convenient for tenants |
| Median Household Income | $190,701 | $178,707 | $87,249 | 119% above state - clients pay premium rates |
| Per Capita Income | ~$70,000 | ~$65,000 | ~$44,000 | Strong purchasing power |
| Median Age | 38.2 years | 37.5 years | 38.7 years | Young professionals and families = active salon users |
| Poverty Rate | 3.8% | 3.4% | 10.6% | Very low - high discretionary income |
| Owner-Occupied Housing | 83.1% | 75.2% | ~66% | Community stability |
| Bachelor's Degree+ | 68.5% | 62.4% | 42.2% | Educated, higher-earning population |
Sources:
Age Distribution Analysis
| Age Group | South Riding | Loudoun County | Relevance to Salon Services |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 18 | ~27% | ~26% | Children generate family salon visits |
| 18-24 | ~7% | ~7% | Entry-level salon consumers |
| 25-44 | ~30% | ~29% | Prime salon demographic |
| 45-64 | ~25% | ~25% | Higher spending, established professionals |
| 65+ | ~11% | ~13% | Steady, loyal customers |
Key Finding: South Riding has a strong percentage of young families and working-age adults (25-44 at ~30%) compared to the county average. This age distribution is ideal for salon services:
- Young families = regular kids' haircuts + parent services
- 25-44 demographic = highest salon visit frequency
- Lower 65+ percentage = more active workforce-age consumers
Income Distribution Analysis
South Riding Income Positioning:
- South Riding median HH income: $190,701
- Loudoun County median: $178,707 (South Riding is 7% higher)
- Virginia median: $87,249 (South Riding is 119% higher)
- US median: ~$75,000 (South Riding is 154% higher)
Trade Area Income Comparison:
| Community | Median HH Income | vs. State Average |
|---|---|---|
| Brambleton | $250,001 | +187% |
| Broadlands | $235,491 | +170% |
| South Riding | $190,701 | +119% |
| Stone Ridge | $183,211 | +110% |
| Lansdowne | $180,379 | +107% |
| Loudoun County | $178,707 | +105% |
| Ashburn | $152,094 | +74% |
| Centreville | $143,704 | +65% |
| Chantilly | $143,786 | +65% |
Business Implication: The primary trade area is dominated by communities with median household incomes 65-187% above state average. This creates exceptional pricing power for beauty professionals. Clients in these areas pay premium rates for quality services, enabling salon suite tenants to afford higher rents.
Racial/Ethnic Composition
South Riding Demographics:
- White (Non-Hispanic): 37.1%
- Asian (Non-Hispanic): 35.7%
- Hispanic/Latino: 10.6%
- Black/African American: 9.0%
- Two or More Races: 5.8%
Market Implication: South Riding's highly diverse population creates strong demand for beauty professionals with varied specializations across hair types, textures, and cultural styling preferences. The large Asian community (35.7%) represents a particularly notable market segment with specific beauty service needs. This diversity supports a broad range of suite tenants (hair stylists, barbers, braiders, estheticians, nail technicians).
Sources:
3. Market Signals: Demographics to Business Opportunity
High Income = Premium Service Market
Signal: South Riding's $190,701 median household income is 119% above state average.
Business Translation:
- Clients have significant discretionary income for beauty services
- Hair appointments can command $100-$200+ vs. $40-$60 in average-income areas
- Color services, extensions, specialty treatments are affordable to clientele
- Beauty professionals earning $100,000-$180,000/year can sustain suite rents of $350-$550/week
Low Poverty = Consistent Demand
Signal: South Riding's 3.8% poverty rate is well below Virginia's average of 10.6%.
Business Translation:
- Residents don't cut back on "non-essential" grooming during economic fluctuations
- Stable, recession-resistant client base
- Consistent appointment booking patterns
- Lower risk of client attrition for suite tenants
Young Families = High Service Frequency
Signal: ~27% of South Riding residents are under 18, with a strong 25-44 working-age cohort (~30%).
Business Translation:
- Young families visit salons more frequently (kids' cuts, parents' maintenance)
- Parents (especially mothers) are primary salon consumers ages 25-44
- Family-oriented services (kids' first haircuts, wedding prep, family photos) create demand
- Reliable repeat business for established stylists
High Owner-Occupancy = Community Stability
Signal: 83.1% of South Riding homes are owner-occupied (vs. 66% state average).
Business Translation:
- Residents are invested in their community long-term
- Stylists build multi-year relationships with clients
- Word-of-mouth referrals are powerful in stable communities
- Reduced risk of client turnover due to relocation
High Education = Quality Consciousness
Signal: 68.5% of South Riding adults have bachelor's degrees or higher (vs. 42.2% state).
Business Translation:
- Educated consumers research and select quality services
- Willingness to pay premium for expertise and experience
- Value professional credentials and certifications
- Seek out specialized services (organic products, specific techniques)
4. Population Growth Trends
South Riding Growth Trajectory
| Period | Population | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 33,877 | Census baseline |
| 2023 | 34,200 | +0.95% (ACS) |
| 2024 (July) | 35,399 | +3.5% from 2023 |
5-Year Growth (2018-2023): +10.1% 2022-2023 Annual Growth: +2.52%
Source: Data USA - South Riding, VA
Loudoun County Growth Trajectory
| Period | Population | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | ~312,000 | - | Census baseline |
| 2020 | 420,959 | +34.0% decade | Among fastest-growing counties in US |
| 2023 | 434,326 | +3.2% post-COVID | Steady growth |
| 2024 | 443,380 | +2.1% | Continued strong growth |
| 2025 (projected) | 449,684 | +1.4% annual | Growth moderating but sustained |
Key Milestone: Loudoun County grew 34% from 2010 to 2020, making it one of the fastest-growing counties in the nation. Growth continues at approximately 1.4% annually.
Sources:
Trade Area Growth Hotspots
| Community | Recent Growth | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Brambleton | +5.28% (one year) | Massive planned community expansion |
| South Riding | +2.52% (2022-23) | Market Square expansion, new housing |
| Ashburn | +2.1% (2022-23) | Data center corridor employment growth |
| Centreville | +0.5% (2022-23) | Mature market, stable |
| Stone Ridge | +1.8% (2022-23) | Continued planned community build-out |
Key Growth Drivers
1. Data Center Alley Economic Engine
Northern Virginia's "Data Center Alley" is the world's largest concentration of data centers:
- Scale: 53.3 million square feet of data center space
- Employment: 15,000+ direct jobs in Loudoun County
- Economic Impact: $640 million in annual state tax revenue
- Major Players: AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google, Meta, Equinix
Implication: Steady influx of well-paid tech workers and contractors creates sustained demand for professional services including beauty/salon services. Data center and tech workers have above-average incomes and value convenience.
Source: Loudoun County Economic Development - Data Centers
2. Dulles Technology Corridor (Route 28)
The Route 28 corridor hosts major defense contractors and technology firms:
- Defense: Northrop Grumman, Raytheon Technologies
- Telecom: Verizon Business headquarters
- Federal: DHS, SAIC, and other government contractors
- Aviation: Washington Dulles International Airport (United Airlines hub)
Implication: Diverse, high-paying employment base creates a deep pool of affluent consumers for premium salon services.
3. Housing Development Pipeline
- South Riding Market Square expansion: 383 new dwelling units + 220,000 sq ft retail
- Defender Drive: 161 single-family attached homes
- County-wide: 768 new homes approved July 2024 alone
- Brambleton continuing aggressive expansion
Implication: New housing = new residents = expanding client base for beauty professionals.
4. Healthcare Expansion
- Inova Loudoun Hospital expansion
- StoneSprings Hospital Center (opened 2016, continuing growth)
- Growing medical office development
Implication: Healthcare employment adds to the professional worker base, and medical professionals are reliable premium salon clientele.
5. Demographic Summary & Market Assessment
Total Addressable Population
| Geography | Population | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Trade Area (5 mi) | ~121,000 | Core client base |
| Secondary Trade Area (10 mi) | ~325,000 | Extended reach |
| Loudoun County | 443,380 | Professional pool source |
Income Positioning
South Riding trade area income positioning:
- 119% above Virginia median household income
- 154% above national median household income
- Among the highest income levels in the Washington, DC metro area
Competitive Advantage: Exceptionally high-income demographics enable beauty professionals to charge premium rates, supporting higher suite rental prices while maintaining profitability.
Age & Demographic Fit
Optimal characteristics present:
- Strong percentage of families with children (~27% under 18)
- Robust 25-44 age cohort (prime salon demographic)
- Highly diverse population supporting various beauty specializations
- Very high education levels correlating with quality consciousness
Growth Trajectory
Positive growth indicators:
- South Riding: +2.52% annual growth (2022-2023)
- Five-year growth of +10.1% (2018-2023)
- Loudoun County: ~1.4% annual growth, approaching 450,000 residents
- Data Center Alley and Dulles Technology Corridor driving sustained employment growth
- Active housing development pipeline (South Riding Market Square, Defender Drive)
Growth Projection: The trade area is expected to add 10,000-20,000 new residents over the next 5 years based on current trends, development pipeline, and continued tech corridor expansion.
Overall Demographic Attractiveness Rating
Rating: EXCELLENT
Justification:
| Factor | Assessment | Weight | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income Level | Exceptional (119% above state) | High | 5/5 |
| Population Density | Good (5,019/sq mi core) | Medium | 4/5 |
| Age Distribution | Excellent (strong young professional/family cohort) | High | 5/5 |
| Growth Trend | Excellent (+2.5% annual, +10% five-year) | Medium | 5/5 |
| Poverty/Stability | Excellent (3.8% poverty) | High | 5/5 |
| Education Level | Exceptional (68.5% bachelor's+) | Medium | 5/5 |
| Diversity | Excellent (highly diverse, supports broad specializations) | Low | 5/5 |
Weighted Score: 4.9/5.0 - EXCELLENT
Key Takeaways for Salon Suites Business
-
Premium Pricing Supportable: South Riding's demographics justify premium suite rates ($400-550/week range), among the highest achievable in the DC metro area
-
Stable Demand: Low poverty, high owner-occupancy, and diversified tech/government employment create recession-resistant demand
-
Growing Market: Strong population trends (2.5% annual, 10% five-year growth) mean an expanding professional pool and client base
-
Quality-Conscious Consumers: Highly educated, affluent population seeks quality services and will pay for expertise
-
Diverse Service Demand: Highly diverse demographics (no single racial group exceeds 38%) support a wide range of beauty specializations (hair, nails, skin, specialty services, culturally-specific treatments)
Document prepared for Luxa Salon Suites business plan Data current as of January 2026 All sources cited with URLs for verification
Get a Business System like this for your industry
Complete business plan, operations playbooks, financial models, and more.
Get Started